Falling-wind-energy-costs

Wind energy is one of the most affordable forms of electricity today, with utility executives noting “Wind prices are extremely competitive right now, offering lower costs than other possible resources”.

Recent improvements in turbine technology has reduced the cost of wind energy, allowing electricity consumers and utilities to lock in low, affordable electricity rates through 20 to 30 year contracts.

Cost of Wind Energy

The financial services company Lazard reports in their 2016 Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis that wind energy is now one of the most affordable options for new electricity generation. Wind’s unsubsidized levelized cost of energy ($/MWh) is competitive with conventional generation in certain regions of the country, ranging from $32/MWh to $62/MWh in 2016, with pricing lowest in the Interior region of the country.

Source: Lazard’s Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis – Version 10.0

As a renewable resource, wind energy has no fuel cost, allowing electricity consumers and utilities to lock-in known electricity rates for 20 to 30 years through contracts called Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs).

As provided by the Department of Energy’s Wind Technologies Market Report, a summary of these public PPA contracts demonstrates the reduction of wind energy costs in recent years, with wind energy costs delivering affordable rates to electricity consumers.

• The 2015 DOE Wind Technologies Market Report finds «a clear downward trend in PPA prices since 2009 and 2010 … After topping out at nearly $70/MWh for PPAs executed in 2009, the national averge levelized price of wind PPAs with the Berkeley Lab sample has dropped to around the $20/MWh level.» Power purchase agreements signed for wind energy projects during 2015 are lowest in the Interior region of the country, where the majority of capacity built in recent years is lcoated.[1]
  

PPA Price for Wind Energy Projects

The following chart depicts actual long-term contract power purchase agreement prices for wind energy projects over time, showing the variation in pricing across regions of the country as well as project size.

The primary drivers that determine the cost of electricity from wind energy are capital costs, capacity factor and operating costs. Wind turbine technology is improving including lower cost wind turbines, increased performance, and advanced operations, causing the cost of wind electricity to decline significantly in recent years.

Capital costs:  The cost of the wind turbine is the single largest cost component, and can make up 70% or more of the entire cost of a land-based wind project. The cost of installation, such as construction, makes up the remaining capital costs.  Recent reductions in capital costs have been primarily driven by significant reductions in wind turbine costs.

• The 2015 DOE Wind Technologies Market Report reports that “In 2015, the capacity-weighted average installed project cost stood at nearly $1,690/kW, down $640/kW or 27% from the apparent peak in average reported costs in 2009 and 2010.”[2]

Wind resource/capacity factor:  The strength and quality of the wind resource at a wind project site will determine how much electricity a wind project can produce, impacting the costs of the wind electricity.  Advancements in technology, such as taller wind towers and longer and lighter blades, have allowed for capture of better wind resource, which improves the production performance of wind turbines.

Operating costs: Once a wind project is delivering electricity to the power grid, it is expected to operate for 20 years or longer, requiring monitoring and maintenance to optimize performance from specialized wind technicians and operators.

Other: the cost of electricity from a wind project are also impacted by financing costs, siting and permitting, site-specific characteristics, availability and cost of skilled labor, transportation and logistics, and other factors.

Declining Cost of Wind Energy Over Time

Advanced technology, improved siting techniques, and learning across all sectors as the industry scales up have all influenced the cost of wind energy over time.  The Department of Energy, below, depicts the cost reduction in wind energy alongside U.S. wind energy deployment, showing a decrease in cost of more than 90% since the early 1980’s.

Comparative Cost of Energy: How Wind Energy Stacks Up

As wind energy prices decline, and electricity consumers and utilities are faced with choices about new electricity generation, wind energy is increasingly a competitive choice of power. With improving technology and siting techniques, wind energy is increasingly becoming one of the most affordable forms of electricity today.

Electric utilities across the country are noting the affordability of wind energy:

• “Wind prices are extremely competitive right now, offering lower costs than other possible resources, like natural gas plants. These projects offer a great hedge against rising and often volatile fuel prices.» – David Sparby, president & CEO of Xcel Energy’s Northern States Power announcing 600 MW of new wind power contracts on July 16, 2013.

•  «The latest addition of 150 megawatts of low-cost wind energy provides AECC with a hedge against fluctuating natural gas energy prices […] We will continue to pursue energy options that allow AECC’s member cooperatives to provide reliable electricity at the lowest possible cost.” – Duane Highley, president & CEO of Arkansas Electric Cooperative Corporation after signing a 150 MW contract July 22, 2013

• “From September 2011 through June 2012, fuel costs to Arkansas customers were approximately $1.2 million lower because of the incorporation of Crossroads into OG&E’s generation fleet. OG&E estimates that fuel savings to Arkansas customers from September 2011 through December of 2012 will be in the range of $2.2 million. Total Company production cost savings for the first five years of operation are estimated to be $268 million. Over the expected twenty-five year life of the asset production cost, the savings are estimated to be $2.3 billion.» – Oklahoma Gas & Electric. Arkansas Public Service Commission. Docket 12-067-u-Doc. 1.

Hedging Value of Wind Energy: Valuing Risk and Cost

When assessing new sources of electricity generation, utilities also consider risk, such as fuel price risk or future environmental regulations, as well as cost. When considering both of these factors, wind energy provides a low cost and low risk option for electricity consumers and utilities.

Electric utilities have noted this value of wind energy with CEO of Xcel Energy, Ben Fowke noting “These projects will lower customer costs by at least $800 million over their lives and will provide a valuable hedge to rising and volatile fuel prices for well into the future.”[3]

Relative Cost and Risk of New Generation Resources

Chart Source: CERES, Practicing Risk-Aware Electricity Regulation

https://www.awea.org/falling-wind-energy-costs